Real estate trends 2017: Will Toronto prices catch up to Vancouver’s?

A new real estate forecast for Canada predicts ups and downs ahead in 2017: Vancouver will slump, the GTA will soar.

Real estate in Canada’s largest markets became increasingly unaffordable for many in 2016, and the spectre of a crash loomed.

“The price of a home in Canada increased 13.0 per cent year-over-year to $558,153 in the fourth quarter of 2016 – the highest year-over-year national home price increase recorded in over a decade,” stated a forecast released Thursday.

Ontario has seen incredible growth in recent years, and that’s not expected to change in 2017.

The GTA saw a 16.1 per cent year-over-year spike in prices. Some areas around Toronto have seen “Vancouver-like” growth over the last year: Richmond Hill ended 2016 with home values 30 per cent higher than a year before.

“There is no relief in sight for the GTA – forward momentum and supporting fundamentals in the region are that strong,” said Soper.

With prices increasingly pushing homes beyond reach, first time home buyers are also being shut out of the lower end of the market due to diminishing condo inventory.

While it might seem like condos going up on every corner of Canada’s largest city — they are likely already all sold out, said Brad J. Lamb, president and CEO at Lamb Development and Brad J. Lamb Realty.

There are about 670 condos for sale in Toronto this January, compared with 1,450 units last January and 2,200 in January of 2015, Lamb said.

“One of the reason prices went up 17 per cent last year was because there was not enough product to go around and keep the market happy,” said Lamb.

Supply has now fallen, year over year, by more than half.

“We’re going to have a huge problem in prices this year going up. Last year will look like nothing compared to this year.”

Lamb predicts GTA prices will only skyrocket in the coming years.

“Our prices will be well in excess of Vancouver’s prices in five years,” said Lamb. “And there’s nothing anybody can do to stop it.”